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Topic: the australia zone  (Read 5139 times)

Ven Malakim

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the australia zone
« Reply #90 on: August 12, 2017, 01:24:01 am »
man why didn't you tell me you were in town, I live like 20 minutes away from that giant sumbitch.

krytton

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« Reply #91 on: August 12, 2017, 02:42:07 am »
question: how do you live so close to that thing without going crazy

bananas arent meant to be that big
H.P. Shivcraft

FinchChunk

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« Reply #92 on: August 12, 2017, 08:40:22 am »
Maybe if you stay far enough away that it looks regular size?

Anyone want to place bets on how this postal plebiscite thing is going to shake out?

Cleretic

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« Reply #93 on: August 12, 2017, 11:04:22 am »
Anyone want to place bets on how this postal plebiscite thing is going to shake out?

OKAY SO

What we've got so far:
-No real idea if the High Court challenge is going to have wings or not, from what I know the question is entirely if Whitlam's postal vote on the national anthem holds up as precedent or not.
-Postal votes tend to skew overwhelmingly towards older demographics, who tend to be more conservative.
-The ACL's propaganda machine is already revving up, as are a number of pro-marriage equality rallies.
-'Morally abstaining' appeared to be an idea gaining traction pretty early, but is getting pretty resoundingly shouted down through various high-profile social media posts. Chances are there'll be some of it, but...
-Transactions with the AEC jumped HARD on Friday, with over sixteen times the usual amount of people enrolling or updating their details. A vast majority of these people are likely doing this specifically to ensure they can vote 'yes', because conservatives tend to be pretty on the ball with updating their details and don't have a whole lot to fight for here.
-Looks like the ABS have no idea what they're doing with this, but that's something that could be resolved in the future.

So in summary, it's probably going to happen, it's gonna be an ugly as hell few months, and we have no idea how it will shake out since it's essentially a phenomenally conservative-skewing polling method clashing against exactly what gets liberal-leaning voters incensed.

Now, what'll happen after that we can't say for certain. If it comes back 'no' it's likely to just be a big depressing fight for nothing, and Labor will just pass it if they win the next election (which they probably will, barring some cataclysmic disaster). If it comes back 'yes' things get really interesting, as we don't exactly know how it's gonna shake out; Labor's most likely going to be almost all in favor, and the Greens definitely will be, but we legitimately have no idea how many are going to abide by the plebiscite, who's going to vote no regardless, and who might be swayed by more minute details. It's not something that breaks down very easily; fucking Hanson has said she'll vote in accordance with the plebiscite. So if it comes back 'yes' either we'll see it win by tooth and nail, or get knocked down by a bunch of people going against the public response, and it's pretty much all going to come down to the really esoteric Liberal backbenchers you never hear about.

...And if it gets knocked down after a 'yes' the LNP are going to struggle hard to recover from the fact they went rather specifically against the will of the people and wasted a bunch of money for nothing, meaning Labor win the next election by a landslide. And then pass it in like, the first month.

FinchChunk

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the australia zone
« Reply #94 on: August 14, 2017, 04:18:44 am »
Do we think that last one is a possibility? The plebiscite going yes but it still being voted down. If the plebiscite data is reported by electorate then there are probably some members who will reason that their electorate is against it and therefore they should/can vote against it but it seems like there'd be such a backlash against the party as a whole that the leadership would go to lengths to assure that didn't happen.

I hope that the amount of noise on social media will reduce the amount this disadvantages young people. I feel like the bigger question is how many young people just don't care, or don't care enough.

Cleretic

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the australia zone
« Reply #95 on: August 14, 2017, 09:03:21 am »
Do we think that last one is a possibility? The plebiscite going yes but it still being voted down. If the plebiscite data is reported by electorate then there are probably some members who will reason that their electorate is against it and therefore they should/can vote against it but it seems like there'd be such a backlash against the party as a whole that the leadership would go to lengths to assure that didn't happen.

I hope that the amount of noise on social media will reduce the amount this disadvantages young people. I feel like the bigger question is how many young people just don't care, or don't care enough.
Hard to say how possible 'Plebiscite returns yes but the LNP still don't pass it' is. As I said, the ones with the keys there are the esoteric backbenchers you never hear from. Across the general right-wing parties there's a relatively even spread between openly 'will abide by the plebiscite's result' (Hanson most notably, but there's others) and 'will be voting no regardless' (Abbott, Bernardi), There's also some people who haven't said but can be pretty clearly read (Turnbull will probably abide by it, Joyce likely won't (if he's still eligible to vote in the first place)). Labor will mostly be voting in support, although in some cases I imagine that it's more out of pressure than actual belief, so I'd estimate that between all those we can make educated guesses about it comes out roughly equal-ish, maybe slightly in favor of 'no'. But those known quantities aren't the entire parliament.

So it really comes down to the big swathe of MPs that you can't really judge one way or the other, the esoteric backbenchers. Both among the Liberals and Labor, to be honest, although I'd be more confident about the Labor members voting yes if only for coldly political reasons. But that's a lot of question marks in that murky middle range, enough to decide the vote even with everyone who's been up-front.

krytton

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the australia zone
« Reply #96 on: August 15, 2017, 03:31:26 am »
hey heres a cool question: are we gonna even have a postal vote now? because shit's kinda hitting the fan

FinchChunk

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the australia zone
« Reply #97 on: August 15, 2017, 04:00:52 am »
I was aware there was some sort of high court challenge but I haven't been able to find any more info on where that's at. Or do you mean BJ's trubs. I swear the first Lib friend of mine that starts trotting out that bullshit about Shorten or Wong colluding with the NZ government will have every smug thing they said about Ludlam and Waters fed to them.
« Last Edit: August 15, 2017, 04:18:52 am by FinchChunk »

Cleretic

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the australia zone
« Reply #98 on: August 15, 2017, 04:06:02 am »
The reason they went for it is because they figured they have the right to do a postal plebiscite without putting it through parliament, which is what's going to the High Court in early September. If it gets knocked down there, it's not coming back specifically because that's the reason they're going for it.

FinchChunk

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the australia zone
« Reply #99 on: August 16, 2017, 06:12:43 am »
I've just spent the last hour reading about the Charlottesville nonsense and getting very depressed about the ability of people to have civilised political discourse at all anymore. Then I watched Annabelle Crabb and James McGrath (QLD LNP Senator) eating Milo and ice-cream and I felt good about life again.

krytton

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the australia zone
« Reply #100 on: August 17, 2017, 04:33:51 am »

FinchChunk

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« Reply #101 on: August 17, 2017, 04:52:54 am »
The Nationals are going to have to change their name.
krytton

krytton

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« Reply #102 on: August 17, 2017, 05:00:38 am »
🚂🚃🚃fuck +44 im all about that s44🚃🚃🚃

Blandest

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« Reply #103 on: August 17, 2017, 11:28:58 am »
Regardless of how you feel about the particular people caught up in this, it's a dumb rule and has no real place in the constitution. Maybe instead of the plebiscite they could just pass that shit in parliament by doing their job, and then spend the plebiscite money on a referendum to change section 44.

FinchChunk

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« Reply #104 on: August 17, 2017, 07:49:33 pm »
Yeah, you can see what they were going for but for a nation of immigrants it is a bit nuts. To be honest if they found that BJ was alright I'd understand as he wasn't born overseas and never utilised his citizenship, though I'd be irritated by it.